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2024 Predictions - Keeper Security & Tigera

November 2023 by Marc Jacob

2024 predictions from Tigera and Keeper Security

Malavika Balachandran Tadeusz, Senior Product Manager, Tigera
In today’s economic environment, everyone is looking at where they can cut down costs, especially cloud infrastructure and SaaS spend. We’ll see the growth of tools focused on helping people optimize their cloud spend and we’ll also see churn from established SaaS players to lower-cost alternatives, especially in the Security Information and Event Management (SIEM) and observability space.

Malavika Balachandran Tadeusz, Senior Product Manager, Tigera
More organizations are dipping their toes into generative AI and also increasing their investment in machine learning more broadly. There are so many operational challenges for platform teams that want to facilitate running ML jobs on cloud platforms. MLOps is a hot topic at the moment but still in the early stages of adoption – we’ll see advancements there as more organizations mature their ML infrastructure.

Malavika Balachandran Tadeusz, Senior Product Manager, Tigera
Supply chain security remains a top concern for security teams. Following the Executive Order in 2021 on cybersecurity, there was a huge focus on supply chain security, particularly as a requirement for FedRAMP. We’ll see increased adoption of tools in the cloud security landscape that are focused on supply chain security.


Novel Attack Vectors
Cybersecurity is an arms race. Bad actors are constantly evolving their tools to circumvent detection, while defenders are trying to adapt. Today, we are facing an onslaught of new attack vectors using Artificial intelligence (AI). AI in the hands of adversaries has the potential to amp up a plethora of attack methods, including one of today’s top scamming tactics: social engineering. The potential impact to enterprises is significant; with the right AI solutions, voices can easily be mimicked, and if the voices of an organization’s leaders are widely available, successful phone and voicemail scams will increase.

This is just one example. In 2024 and beyond, AI will continue leading to novel attack vectors that may be out of a security or IT leader’s control. However, by implementing cybersecurity solutions that limit lateral movement and protect privileged accounts, organizations can control what a bad actor can do if these novel attacks do lead to unauthorized access. Deploying a Privileged Access Management (PAM) solution is critical to protecting an organization’s most valuable assets.

Even though AI will lead to novel attack vectors, the cybersecurity solutions organizations need to deploy to fortify their defenses and protect against the evolving threat landscape remain the same.

Importance of SIEM
With increasing attack vectors and a larger attack surface, organizations need to diligently monitor events that pose the biggest threats to their organization for timely and effective Incident Detection and Response (IDR) and to ensure adherence to policies. In order to protect their organization’s crown jewels, organizations need better insight into password practices and privileged users.

Security Information Event Management (SIEM) tools log all types of events that happen within a system and consolidate information from disparate cybersecurity solutions into one central location for logs, reporting and alerts, which is becoming increasingly important as the volume of cyberattacks increases, threats intensify and organizations implement a variety of different solutions to keep pace.

In 2024, we’ll see SIEM tools increasingly utilize AI to enhance the ability to detect anomalies and correlate security events. This will revolutionize SIEM detection capabilities and provide even richer insights to help improve an organization’s security posture.

Ubiquitous Cybersecurity Platforms
As organizations continue shifting to the cloud and seeking affordable, pervasive solutions, we’ll see an uptick in the adoption of ubiquitous platforms that provide full visibility and reduce security gaps. As users become less tolerant of expensive, disparate security solutions, investment in solutions that provide the full spectrum: visibility, security, reporting and control will increase.

Organizations will seek solutions that address the most prevalent threats, moving toward cloud-based solutions that can scale with the organization’s size and cybersecurity maturity. This will reduce the number of IT staff required to manage on-premises platforms while simultaneously helping to close security gaps and reduce operating risks.

Passkeys and Passwords Will Coexist
Passkeys will continue to grow in popularity, but will not entirely replace passwords. New and expanding hybrid work environments will make it critical to ensure the safe storage of user login credentials, necessitating organizations and individuals learn how to use both passkeys and traditional passwords. Despite the advantages of passkeys, there will continue to be significant barriers to their mass adoption.

Implementing passkey-based authentication systems requires changes to the login, MFA and account-recovery processes on existing websites, which is a major roadblock for some service providers.

Consistent support from major platforms and browsers will be needed to promote widespread adoption of passkey technology, but support through the transition will be limited and hinder user adoption. This is due to a) underlying platform support and the necessary changes to existing websites and; b) the fact that it’s not a default setting, so the user must take action to configure or set it up. Out of more than a billion websites that exist, only a few dozen currently support passkeys. That number may jump into the tens of thousands by 2025 and, aided by Google’s recent adoption of passkeys, we expect more websites and service providers to adopt passkey-based authentication as interest grows. However, that’s a miniscule fraction of the password-reliant websites that exist today.

User hesitancy will be another barrier to the adoption of passkeys. Passwords have reigned supreme for so long that users will be hesitant to adopt a new authentication method, especially if they are not familiar with the security benefits. The use of an encrypted password manager that supports passkeys is critical to ensure adoption and use across different devices, while preserving security for existing authentication methods including traditional passwords.


Collaboration is needed to avoid a post-quantum apocalypse
A post-quantum apocalypse is not a plot from a science-fiction thriller. The consequences of the new-future threat posed by quantum computers built to attack classical public key encryption algorithms is severe enough that governments and the security industry are developing new cryptography designed to withstand quantum computing attacks.

Public and private industry collaboration are needed to defend against threats to the current cryptographic standards that support modern network security. The ongoing research and development of post-quantum algorithms and protocols from organizations like NIST, CISA and the NSA are critical, and continue to advance national prioritization and broader awareness of the threats that quantum computing could pose to cybersecurity. Cybersecurity professionals, researchers and organizations need to stay informed about the latest advancements to prepare for the post-quantum era.

Next decade reality: Time-traveling attackers
Quantum computers that can break modern cryptography may become a reality within the next decade. Though the date is uncertain, the superiority of quantum computing capabilities poses a very real threat to nation-states, enterprises and individuals alike. The primary attack of concern is store-and-crack, where attackers may capture and store encrypted information and web traffic now, and then when quantum computers are available, break the encryption and read the secrets that are stored. If the secrets are still valuable in the future, attackers can use them to exploit sensitive systems.

Quantum computing algorithms are known to break public key cryptography including RSA and elliptic curve cryptography by efficiently solving the underlying hardness problems on which these cryptosystems rely. To address this risk today, the industry must begin reviewing research and guidance from NIST, in order to incorporate quantum-resistant cryptography to ensure long-term security.

Practical next steps for cybersecurity: Public-private cooperation
Cybersecurity involves not only protecting data now, but also ensuring security into the future. Organizations will need to assess their cybersecurity risks and begin adopting quantum-resistant cryptography where appropriate. This includes understanding which data and systems are most vulnerable and where changes to protection must be prioritized.

The critical next steps for the cybersecurity industry will be to monitor NIST’s progress and watch for the finalized versions of their encryption standards, as well as production software library support. Then, the industry must integrate these new cryptographic standards. This process may take a year or more, so attention and investment must happen now to evade store-and-break-later attacks. A multi-agency cooperative effort by organizations and the cybersecurity community is crucial to ensure the industry is prepared as soon as possible. All organizations and agencies will need to collaborate with CISA, NIST and NSA on tracking the migration to quantum-resistant cryptography and the overall state of quantum readiness.

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